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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0759Z May 15, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 12Z Wed May 15 2024 - 12Z Fri May 17 2024 ...Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast today... ...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week ... ...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and Louisiana on Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the eastern U.S. ahead of an advancing low pressure system lifting through the Tennessee Valley/Mid-Atlantic region and a slow moving cold front through the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will also be ushered into the Plains along and ahead of a cold front. Some of these storms may have the potential to become severe and possibly produce areas of excessive rainfall through Thursday morning. SPC has an Enhanced Risk for sever weather for the Texas Panhandle and portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas with Slight Risks for the Carolinas and central Florida. Across South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat also will build into South Texas today and Thursday as a warm front returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a very warm and moist airmass into the region. With the return of the heat there will also be an environment that will be very conducive for widespread heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast, Southern Plains and Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley which could be a potentially significant heavy rain event. SPC has a Slight Risk in place across the South and WPC has a Moderate (Level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for eastern Texas and Louisiana. Areal averages of 2 to 4 inches is forecast for the western Gulf states and locally higher amounts will be possible. Over the past 2 weeks there has been a near continuous stream of heavy rainfall which has made much of this part of the region sensitive to any additional rain. Campbell/Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php